Wortpresse

Super Tuesday is finally upon us: 4 candidates – 10 states – 437 delegates.
Romney goes into most states as the favorite to win, and he has quite a lot to prove. For Santorum it is a question of not falling behind too much. One or two wins would boost his credentials. The same goes for Ron Paul, who will be looking to net his first win of the primary season and to stay ahead of Gingrich. As for Newt… he’s done.
The good news first (or is it bad news?): nothing will be decided today. The show will go on Wednesday morning. Though we might be nudging closer to a decision if Romney can bag a few important states.

So here is my guide to Super Tuesday with a few pointers what to watch out for:


1. All eyes on the Buckeyes.
Most pundits will concentrate on the competition in the Buckeye State of Ohio. Why? Statistics.
Americans love statistics. Conventional wisdom states that no Republican presidential candidate has ever gotten to the White House without winning Ohio. So it will be a highly symbolic win giving the victor bragging rights going into a possible head-to-head against Obama.
With 66 delegates up for grabs it’s also the second biggest state on Super Tuesday after Georgia. But because Georgia is pretty much irrelevant this time around (more to that later) Ohio matters all the more.
The polls suggest a close contest between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. Importantly, momentum is on the side of the Romney camp. In the last weeks Romney has made up double-digits making it a statistical tie in a lot of polls.
And don’t forget: Santorum from the neighboring state of Pennsylvania has built up his campaign on an appeal to the working people of the Midwest. It would be a tough blow for his campaign to lose against Romney, whom they are trying to label as an out-of-touch liberal millionaire.
A win for Romney in Ohio after the one in Michigan should shut up a lot of pundits and opponents claiming he is unelectable among the working class.


2. Southern (Dis-)Comfort
As I have stated before on this blog, I believe Newt Gingrich is dead in the water. And he is; he was no hope of winning the nomination. But that does not mean that he is done campaigning for it.
Expect Gingrich to do better in the Southern States than in all the other contests. He should easily win his native Georgia with 76 delegates, which will be his argument to not drop out quite yet. Of course it’s really about the money, Lebowski!

More interesting than Georgia is the contest in Tennessee (58 delegates). Romney has something to prove here: that the can win in the South. So far, he has lost both primaries in the Southern states: South Carolina went to Gingrich, and Missouri went to Santorum (absolutely irrelevant state with 0 delegates).
So far it is essentially a tie in the polls between Romney and Santorum. But it is Santorum’s state to lose. His recent wave of attacks against contraception, health care and education, and his evergreen of anti-gay messages resonate with Southern voters.
If Romney on the other hand wins Tennessee it will be a tremendous boost to his street cred. The South has been a Republican stronghold for 50 years, with a big voting bloc of bible-thumping, liberal-hating conservatives. Winning a piece of that cake would be more than money could buy for Romney. Yet, winning with a very narrow margin would definitely water it all down a bit.


3. Ron Paul’s big moment?
There are a lot of votes to be taken in the Caucus states of Alaska, Idaho and North Dakota (87 delegates in total). Romney has done fairly well in caucuses so far, as has Ron Paul.
Ron Paul might be the dark horse here. He is the only candidate who has campaigned in Alaska, where there are a lot of Tea Partiers; a crowd largely in favor of Paul and Santorum. The same goes for North Dakota. Look for strong performances of the Paul campaign in both states. They are both pretty much up for grabs. Either could be his chance to net his first victory.
Idaho should go to Romney. One word: Mormons.


4. Just win, baby… or not.
After everything I have just told you, let me tell you this: it’s not really that important who wins in most of the states.
Winning has symbolic meaning most of the times, and it gets you air-time and softball questions from pundits. But what really matters is the hard count of delegates.
Being that most states are in Romney’s favor or really close with Romney in the top 2, it is already pretty much clear that he will be the big winner in the delegate count. He should easily get enough votes to pad his numbers and stay clearly in the lead ahead of Rick Santorum.


5. Viriginia FAIL
Just for fun watch out for Virginia. Voters in that state will have a very short list of candidates to choose from: it’s either Mitt Romney, or Ron Paul. Santorum, as well as Gingrich have failed to qualify for the ballot in Virginia. So it’s not a real contest (look for Romney to win quite handsomely), but it’s fun for everybody – expect for Rick and Newt.