Wortpresse

Super Tuesday is over, and we are none the smarter who will be the nominee for the Republican Party. Or are we?
Some quick take-aways from yesterday’s elections.


Romney did pretty much what was expected of him. He won six states, some of them decisively. He clearly won the delegate count. Yet, there will be some major head-aches for Romney after Super Tuesday.

Mitt Romney did well as expected in Alaska, Idaho, Massachusetts and Virginia. He did worse than expected in North Dakota and Vermont. His big win of the night came in Ohio, which means he has now won his first real test with Midwestern blue-collar workers. That should put some concerns to bed although others have cemented themselves.
That one major head-ache everyone will be talking about is Tennessee. Santorum pretty much crushed Romney in the only Southern state that was really contested (Georgia went to Gingrich as expected). Among pundits and the party establishment, Romney’s showing in Tennessee will be a major red flag. He only just managed to get every fourth vote.

The question remains: Can Romney win over conservative voters in a general election?

In about a week, on March 13th, primaries will be held in Alabama and Mississippi. On March 17th it’s Missouri, and March 24th Louisiana. That’ll be it for the South. So he has just about 17 days to finally close the books on his nomination.

It’s hard to predict what happens until then. Kansas on Saturday is anyone’s guess right now, Romney will win Maine decisively. In between you have a couple of caucuses that no one cares about (Guam, Northern Mariana Island, Virgin Islands).
So in fact, Romney has six days and two contests to build momentum and prove to voters that he is the inevitable candidate not only for the East Coast and the Midwest, but also for the conservative South. He will have to put the pedal to the ground and go into beast mode. It will be a short and steep road.

But there is also good news for Romney here. What pundits say, and what voters think is one thing. What his opponents are doing is the other, and it’s way more important.
Santorum has no chance of winning the nomination as long a Newt Gingrich is in the race. Sad day for Rick, because Newt ain’t going nowhere.
Santorum after today will not have a foot to stand on. Yes, he won against Romney in Tennessee. But if you look at the race between Gingrich and Santorum, he’s in trouble. As I said before: Gingrich is dead in the water. He should not be paid any attention. Yet, Santorum is struggling to win over the votes.
This will be an important factor in the contests in Alabama and Mississippi. If Santorum and Gingrich keep dividing up the conservative vote, neither of them is going anywhere. Heck, they might just give Romney a chance to win in one of those states.
The diehard conservative bloc of the party is making it easier for Romney right now. Look for Tea Partiers and conservative talking heads to ask Gingrich to drop out.
But my prediction is that he won’t. Gingrich has a huge ego, and he won’t quit. Plus, he has a lot of money to lose with book sales and speeches if he drops out. Someone would have to pay that man quite handsomely to convince him it’s not worth the pain.

I called it about a month ago, and today, I’m going to double down. Romney will be the Republican candidate for the Presidency in November. By default.