Wortpresse

I’m calling it. Pack your bags, Newt! Mitt Romney will be the Republican Nominee. Not only because of the decisive win by Romney in the Sunshine State Florida, but because there are some lessons to be learnt from this contest. And from now on the whole game changes. Let me explain.

Lesson #1: It’s about the money, Lebowski!
Yes, Newt Gingrich has Sheldon Adelson behind him, a billionaire casino owner from Las Vegas, but this will do him no good. First off, because although it’s a lot of money ($10.000.000 by him alone) it’s not the kind of money you want as a campaigner. It’s always a bad idea to rely on the contributions of a few heavies.
In contrast, Mitt Romney is the establishment guy. With republican mastermind strategists Carl Fonti and Karl Rove backing him, his Super PAC went from 0 to $12 Mio. All in all, Mitt Romney is looking at $240 Mio. in support to defeat Obama in the general election. Plus, a very high percentage of millionaires in the US support Romney.
And it shows: Romney spent $15,3 Mio. in Florida alone to defeat Gingrich. To give you some orientation, John McCain spent $11 Mio. in his entire bid to become the nominee in 2008.
And don’t forget, Romney has a personal wealth of $202 Mio. just in case something might go wrong. So if money is any indication, the point clearly goes to Romney.

Lesson #2: Go negative!
According to The Daily Beast 92% of all ads by Mitt Romney in Florida were negative ads. And they stick: call Gringrich out on his hypocrisy on family values, on his ethics violations as Speaker of the House of Representatives, on being a lobbyist for Freddie Mac during the financial crisis, and the list continues.
In contrast, Mitt Romney remains Mister Teflon. And as so often, Gingrich went ballistic and threw the kitchen sink: in robocalls to voters in Florida and on the campaign trail he claimed that Romney wanted to force Holocaust survivors in nursery homes to eat non-Kosher food to save $5 a day. A serious allegation in a state with a large Jewish population and 1 in 4 voters being senior citizens. Yet, it didn’t stick. Gingrich has yet to find an effective and consistent way to attack and defeat Romney.

Lesson #3: Gingrich is coo-coo for CoCo Pops!
Now, this isn’t news. Gingrich is crazy, or as he would say: grandiose. But talking about colonizing the moon until the 2020 and making it a state with 13.000 inhabitants just may be a tad too crazy even for Republican voters. It was a sad attempt by Gingrich to convince voters that he believes strongly in American Exceptionalism, but he’s failed. All he did was convince people that it’s not the millionaire Romney who’s out of touch, but it’s Gingrich who lives behind the moon.

So what’s next? As I said, from now on the game changes, and there will be a different pace from the last month: over the next week caucuses will be held in Maine, Minnesota, Nevada and Colorado. Romney did very well in all these states in 2008. Especially in Nevada where there is a large Mormon voting bloc. Also keep in mind that Ron Paul has been heavily working on these caucus states. He traditionally fares quite well in caucuses, and he will definitely take away votes from Gingrich in these states. By then, Gingrich will have been streamrolled.
Then we have primaries in Michigan and Arizona. These are both states for Mitt Romney to take. In Michigan, his father George Romney served as Governor for 6 years. In Arizona, as in Nevada, there is a strong Mormon voter turnout.
In addition, there will not be any more debates for Newt Gingrich to gain momentum from.
So if you look at the picture for February, most of the momentum is going to Mitt Romney. In my estimation, Newt Gingrich hardly stands a chance to win a lot of delegates during the coming month.
And I’m about to call it: Romney will be the candidate for the Republican Party. I know a lot can happen in a month, but this is some heavy stuff. It’s time to pack your bags, Newt…